A Minority Government for Labor

While Labor is governing with a minority, the message from the people of NSW was clear — they are ready for a fresh start. 

Overview

As election day approached, various published polls showed wildly varied predictions for the result. The Coalition held 46 seats (Lib 34, Nat 12), the Labor Party held 38 seats and the crossbench held nine across the political spectrum. For the Coalition, seeking a fourth term, the pressure was on to defend 12 seats with margins under seven per cent, also needing to gain an additional seat to govern with a majority. The Labor Party needed to pick up nine seats to form a majority government. Both major parties also had an eye on the increasing influence of independents, including the ‘teals’.

On the night, most major news outlets declared that Labor and Chris Minns would govern with a majority, declaring the result a ‘bloodbath’ for the outgoing Coalition government. Labor picked up several seats early in the evening including Penrith, East Hills and Parramatta. 

The strong swing against the Coalition brought several safe Liberal seats into doubt on election night, including Miranda, Oatley and Drummoyne. These seats were ultimately retained by the Coalition with substantially reduced margins. 

As counting continued in the following days — including pre-poll, absentee and postal votes — a number of seats that had been called for Labor moved back to the Coalition. This included Terrigal, Holsworthy and Ryde. 

In the new Parliament, the Labor Party holds 45 seats, the Coalition 36 (Lib 25, Nat 11), the Greens three and the remaining crossbench holds 12. 

In a nutshell:

• Labor picked up seven seats.
• The Liberals lost eight seats, including five to Labor and three to independents. The Nationals lost only one. 
• The Greens held steady, holding off a challenge from Labor in Balmain. 
• The crossbench has grown from nine to 12 members (including Speaker Greg Piper). 

Notably, incumbent independents Alex Greenwich (Sydney), Joe McGirr (Wagga Wagga), Greg Piper (Lake Macquarie) and Gareth Ward (Kiama) have retained their seats. Former Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Roy Butler (Barwon), Philip Donato (Orange) and Helen Dalton (Murray) were also re-elected. 

The Aftermath

So, what do the results tell us? 

As the Minns Government seeks to govern in minority, some challenging times lay ahead. Three key independents have guaranteed supply and confidence to the Government, however no commitments have been made regarding the broader passage of legislation. This means that every new policy will be up for strong debate and amendment in both houses of Parliament before becoming law. We can anticipate a lot of horse trading to ensure the smooth passage of key policies. 

This election saw around 38 per cent of voters cast their ballots before election day. This includes more than 28 per cent who pre-polled, up from 21.5 per cent in 2019. For anyone who is advocating for a particular party, candidate or issue, this means less time to talk to voters and share key messages. 
At the time of writing the count continues for the Legislative Council, otherwise known as the upper house, but it is clear that Labor will not have a majority. While this is not unusual, the composition of the upper house will mean that Labor will also have to negotiate heavily with minority parties to deliver its agenda. It is likely that the Legalise Cannabis Party and the Liberal Democrats will be represented, joining One Nation and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers on the crossbench. 

What Does This Mean for Our Industry?

Despite relentless campaigning, the outcome of the election makes clear that voters simply did not engage with the issue of cashless gaming. Tracking of key election issues by multiple outlets consistently ranked the matter as amongst the lowest of priorities. Premier Chris Minns has a clear mandate to implement his gaming reform package as it was put to voters, which includes a trial of cashless technology. Gaming reform remains a priority for a number of independents, who have indicated they will push for an expanded trial of cashless gaming. 

ClubsNSW will continue to work constructively with all members of Parliament throughout the introduction of Labor’s gaming reform package and cashless gaming trial. 

The club industry has a new Minister  — the Hon David Harris MP.

Other ministers who have interests in our industry include:

• The Hon John Graham MLC, Minister for Jobs and Tourism, and Minister for Music and the Night Time Economy
• The Hon Paul Scully MP, Minister for Planning and Public Spaces
• The Hon Sophie Cotsis MP, Minister for Industrial Relations and WHS
• The Hon Stephen Kamper MP, Minister for Small Business and Minister for Sport
• The Hon Tim Crakanthorp, Minister for Skills.

ClubsNSW congratulates all new and returning members of the NSW Parliament. We encourage all member clubs to reach out to their local representatives to wish them well for the commencement of the 58^th Parliament.

For any assistance reaching out to your local MP, please contact Olivia Simpson, ClubsNSW Manager of Policy and Government, at [email protected].